Risk Forecast

Rolling 3-week look-ahead · Advisory — Human Review Required

KA

Advisory — Human Review Required. Forecasts are generated from schedule slippage, NCR velocity and procurement telemetry. ANCHOR AI will never re-baseline your plan; the Deputy PM decides what actions to take.

3-week schedule · predicted risk points
W22
W23
W24
Steel erection · Pkg 3
Structural
Utility piping tie-ins · Pkg 4
Mechanical
Cable pulling · Rack R-201
E&I
Hydro-test HT-04-11
Commissioning
Coating · Line 42-P-4116
Painting
Cross-system linkage · Procurement → Schedule

Procurement LLI for Package 3 is 9 days behind — may delay steel erection start by ~2 weeks. Downstream tie-ins on Pkg 4 utility piping at risk of slipping outside float.

Source: Procurement Tracker (LLI-201 · Gulf Steel & Fabrication) + Primavera P6 (Activity A-3120)

Early warning signals
RSK-041
High
T+2w
LLI slippage — Pkg 3 structural steel

Vendor shipment ETA slipped from W22 to W24. 9-day delay against float of 3 days.

Plain-language impact: May defer steel erection start by ~2 weeks, cascading into Pkg 4 tie-in windows.

RSK-042
High
T+1w
NCR backlog on Pkg 4 exceeds trigger

4 open NCRs against Al-Rashid, avg age 3.7 days. Historical closure rate falling below SLA.

Plain-language impact: Hydro-test window for Loop HT-04-11 at risk; adds 5–7 days to commissioning path.

RSK-043
Medium
T+3w
PWHT documentation gap — Pkg 5

Weld traceability for 12 P22 header welds not fully closed. Aramco QA audit scheduled W23.

Plain-language impact: Potential re-inspection; ~$180k rework exposure and 4-day float loss.

RSK-044
Medium
T+3w
Coating crew productivity below plan

Actual DFT/day at 62% of baseline for 3 consecutive weeks on Pkg 5.

Plain-language impact: Line 42-P-4116 handover at risk of slipping into monsoon window.

RSK-045
Low
T+2w
Interface — E&I cable pulling vs mechanical

Congestion in Rack R-201 flagged; coordination meeting overdue.

Plain-language impact: Local delay only; mitigated by re-sequencing.